Tuesday, November 30, 2004

Week 12 - 2004

As in previous weeks, the Ravens are ranked high and Seattle is very low. Baltimore has had a tough schedule and managed to beat some tough teams. They don't fall too far by getting beat by the Patriots in New England because, well, they were playing the Patriots IN New England. Last week I mentioned that Seattle hadn't beaten a decent team all year. This week they lost at home against the Bills, which does not help their case.

There is a new noticable surprise this week in the Cleveland Browns; despite a 3-8 record I've got them ranked 17th. As always, the answer lies in their schedule. They've played some tough teams and have managed to beat Baltimore and Cincinnati.

  1. 3.73 / 10 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. 3.48 / 10 - 1 / New England Patriots
  3. 3.44 / 10 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
  4. 1.64 / 7 - 4 / Baltimore Ravens
  5. 1.26 / 8 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
  6. 1.25 / 8 - 3 / New York Jets
  7. 0.93 / 8 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
  8. 0.90 / 9 - 2 / Atlanta Falcons
  9. 0.71 / 7 - 4 / Minnesota Vikings
  10. 0.43 / 6 - 5 / Jacksonville Jaguars
  11. 0.27 / 7 - 4 / Green Bay Packers
  12. 0.25 / 7 - 4 / Denver Broncos
  13. 0.10 / 5 - 6 / Cincinnati Bengals
  14. 0.03 / 5 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
  15. -0.04 / 5 - 6 / New York Giants
  16. -0.15 / 5 - 6 / Houston Texans
  17. -0.21 / 3 - 8 / Cleveland Browns
  18. -0.25 / 4 - 7 / Dallas Cowboys
  19. -0.27 / 4 - 7 / Detroit Lions
  20. -0.53 / 4 - 7 / Tennessee Titans
  21. -0.57 / 4 - 7 / Oakland Raiders
  22. -0.82 / 4 - 7 / Chicago Bears
  23. -0.94 / 3 - 8 / Washington Redskins
  24. -0.96 / 3 - 8 / Kansas City Chiefs
  25. -1.12 / 5 - 6 / St Louis Rams
  26. -1.15 / 6 - 5 / Seattle Seahawks
  27. -1.22 / 4 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
  28. -1.35 / 4 - 7 / Arizona Cardinals
  29. -1.41 / 4 - 7 / New Orleans Saints
  30. -1.56 / 4 - 7 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  31. -2.25 / 2 - 9 / Miami Dolphins
  32. -3.60 / 1 - 10 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field Advantage = 0.32

posted by adam @ 4:26 PM   14 comments

Monday, November 29, 2004

Week 11 - 2004

The high ranking of the Ravens brings up an interesting question; as the Steelers continue to win does their sole loss to Baltimore look more impressive? At first this almost seems like a silly question and rather counter-intuitive to believe that a game could actually increase in importance as it moves furthar into the past. When the Ravens beat the Steelers in week 2, probably not many people thought much about it. Right now, however, they are the team that won 8 games in a row to become 9-1. Have they been improving drastically through the weeks or have they been essentially the same team all season that is gradually earning more and more respect?

The method that I use to estimate the rankings treats every game equally regardless of whether it happened in week 1 or last Sunday. Thus, more games the Steelers continue to win, the more credit the Ravens will get for their win in week 2. The performance of one team can have an effect on many due to the complicated network of wins and losses. Of course, the Ravens can't bank on their one great acheivement because they will be judged by all the other games as well. However, if they continue to win, they can hold their high position.

I must once again defend my extremely low ranking of Seattle. Despite being 6-4 and ranked fairly well by many of the experts, they appear 23rd by my calculation. I'll simply defend this by listing the teams that have contributed to the Seahawks' win column: Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Miami, and San Francisco.

Score / W - L / Team

  1. 3.54 / 9 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. 3.28 / 9 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
  3. 3.13 / 9 - 1 / New England Patriots
  4. 1.64 / 7 - 3 / Baltimore Ravens
  5. 1.10 / 7 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
  6. 1.06 / 7 - 3 / New York Jets
  7. 0.96 / 8 - 2 / Atlanta Falcons
  8. 0.80 / 7 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
  9. 0.61 / 7 - 3 / Denver Broncos
  10. 0.58 / 6 - 4 / Jacksonville Jaguars
  11. 0.48 / 6 - 4 / Minnesota Vikings
  12. 0.16 / 6 - 4 / Green Bay Packers
  13. 0.00 / 5 - 5 / New York Giants
  14. -0.06 / 3 - 7 / Cleveland Browns
  15. -0.07 / 4 - 6 / Cincinnati Bengals
  16. -0.17 / 4 - 6 / Detroit Lions
  17. -0.27 / 4 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
  18. -0.31 / 4 - 6 / Houston Texans
  19. -0.41 / 4 - 6 / Tennessee Titans
  20. -0.43 / 3 - 7 / Dallas Cowboys
  21. -0.59 / 4 - 6 / Chicago Bears
  22. -0.79 / 3 - 7 / Kansas City Chiefs
  23. -0.82 / 6 - 4 / Seattle Seahawks
  24. -0.89 / 5 - 5 / St Louis Rams
  25. -0.90 / 3 - 7 / Washington Redskins
  26. -1.03 / 3 - 7 / Oakland Raiders
  27. -1.22 / 4 - 6 / Arizona Cardinals
  28. -1.23 / 4 - 6 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  29. -1.24 / 4 - 6 / New Orleans Saints
  30. -1.37 / 3 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
  31. -2.44 / 1 - 9 / Miami Dolphins
  32. -3.09 / 1 - 9 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-advantage = 0.32

posted by adam @ 3:49 PM   0 comments

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Week 10 - 2004

The top four teams remain the same as last week. I know what you're thinking, Baltimore seems a bit high at number 4. However, a win is a win and they did beat the Jets last week in New York. These rankings are also based on overall regular season results, so the Ravens are still benefiting from the victory over Pittsburgh. The Packers only climbed two spots, but it'll take a little more than a home win over Minnesota to make up for the beginning of their season. Seattle remains ranked much lower than many people would probably guess, however, a loss to St. Louis doesn't help.

Score / W - L / Team

  1. 3.45 / 8 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. 3.31 / 8 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
  3. 2.99 / 8 - 1 / New England Patriots
  4. 1.56 / 6 - 3 / Baltimore Ravens
  5. 0.97 / 6 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
  6. 0.91 / 6 - 3 / Jacksonville Jaguars
  7. 0.67 / 7 - 2 / Atlanta Falcons
  8. 0.65 / 6 - 3 / New York Jets
  9. 0.59 / 6 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
  10. 0.47 / 6 - 3 / Denver Broncos
  11. 0.34 / 5 - 4 / Minnesota Vikings
  12. 0.31 / 5 - 4 / New York Giants
  13. 0.24 / 3 - 6 / Cleveland Browns
  14. 0.08 / 4 - 5 / Detroit Lions
  15. -0.09 / 5 - 4 / Green Bay Packers
  16. -0.10 / 4 - 5 / Cincinnati Bengals
  17. -0.12 / 4 - 5 / Houston Texans
  18. -0.30 / 3 - 6 / Dallas Cowboys
  19. -0.46 / 4 - 5 / Chicago Bears
  20. -0.50 / 3 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
  21. -0.60 / 5 - 4 / St Louis Rams
  22. -0.72 / 5 - 4 / Seattle Seahawks
  23. -0.79 / 3 - 6 / Kansas City Chiefs
  24. -0.82 / 4 - 5 / Arizona Cardinals
  25. -0.83 / 3 - 6 / Washington Redskins
  26. -0.86 / 3 - 6 / Tennessee Titans
  27. -1.01 / 3 - 6 / Oakland Raiders
  28. -1.06 / 4 - 5 / New Orleans Saints
  29. -1.21 / 3 - 6 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  30. -1.78 / 2 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
  31. -2.32 / 1 - 8 / Miami Dolphins
  32. -2.95 / 1 - 8 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field advantage = 0.40

posted by adam @ 4:40 PM   7 comments

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Week 9 - 2004

The purpose of this blog, for now, is simply to provide a ranking of NFL teams. The ranking below is completely objective, and accounts for schedule difficulty and home-field advantage. The "score" is estimated from a logistic regression model, and as you can probably guess, the larger the score, the better the team.

At this point, the model is based on the win/loss outcome of the game. That is, there is no distinction between a 41-0 blowout or a 24-21 overtime win. Also, all games are weighted evenly so there is no advantage to being "hot". A teams score estimate will be based on the entire season. The Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh in week 2, before Roethlisberger took over as starter, however their ranking benefits as much as if they beat the Steelers last week. I have not yet decided on the best way to adjust for decisive and recent victories, however, since I would have to use a subjective weighting strategy.

There are a few things that stood out when I first looked at these results. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the Baltimore Ravens are ranked very high for a team with 3 losses. They did, however, hand the Steelers their only loss in week 2 and lost to the Eagles by only 5 points in Philadelphia. Atlanta is only ranked 11th despite their 6-2 record because their first four wins were against very weak teams and they lost at home against the Detroit Lions. Finally, even though Seattle is 5-3, they are ranked 24th. They've had the pleasure of facing a 1-7 team three times (Carolina and San Francisco twice), and they have only played one game against a winning team.

Score / W - L / Team
  1. 3.25 / 7 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. 3.22 / 7 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
  3. 2.83 / 7 - 1 / New England Patriots
  4. 1.24 / 5 - 3 / Baltimore Ravens
  5. 1.00 / 6 - 2 / New York Jets
  6. 0.98 / 5 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
  7. 0.94 / 5 - 3 / New York Giants
  8. 0.89 / 5 - 3 / Minnesota Vikings
  9. 0.88 / 5 - 3 / Jacksonville Jaguars
  10. 0.66 / 6 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
  11. 0.60 / 6 - 2 / Atlanta Falcons
  12. 0.49 / 6 - 3 / Denver Broncos
  13. 0.37 / 4 - 4 / Detroit Lions
  14. 0.35 / 3 - 5 / Cleveland Browns
  15. 0.19 / 4 - 4 / Houston Texans
  16. -0.06 / 3 - 5 / Dallas Cowboys
  17. -0.19 / 4 - 4 / Green Bay Packers
  18. -0.29 / 3 - 5 / Cincinnati Bengals
  19. -0.44 / 3 - 5 / Kansas City Chiefs
  20. -0.48 / 3 - 5 / Tennessee Titans
  21. -0.49 / 3 - 5 / Washington Redskins
  22. -0.57 / 3 - 5 / Buffalo Bills
  23. -0.62 / 3 - 5 / Chicago Bears
  24. -0.78 / 5 - 3 / Seattle Seahawks
  25. -1.10 / 3 - 6 / Oakland Raiders
  26. -1.11 / 4 - 4 / St Louis Rams
  27. -1.24 / 3 - 5 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  28. -1.52 / 3 - 5 / Arizona Cardinals
  29. -1.52 / 3 - 5 / New Orleans Saints
  30. -2.12 / 1 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
  31. -2.50 / 1 - 8 / Miami Dolphins
  32. -2.84 / 1 - 7 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field advantage = 0.36

posted by adam @ 7:40 PM   10 comments