Week 15 Power Ranking - 2004

Here are this weeks rankings. Due to the holidays, this weeks post is a bit short - and late.

Score / Change from Last Week / W - L / Team

1. 3.43 / -0.41 / 13 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 3.15 / -0.22 / 13 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
3. 2.39 / -1.22 / 12 - 2 / New England Patriots
4. 1.52 / 0.21 / 11 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
5. 1.29 / 0.01 / 10 - 4 / New York Jets
6. 1.29 / 0.20 / 11 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
7. 0.89 / -0.32 / 8 - 6 / Baltimore Ravens
8. 0.75 / 0.16 / 11 - 3 / Atlanta Falcons
9. 0.67 / 0.28 / 8 - 6 / Jacksonville Jaguars
10. 0.47 / 0.24 / 8 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
11. 0.23 / -0.03 / 8 - 6 / Denver Broncos
12. 0.09 / 0.18 / 8 - 6 / Minnesota Vikings
13. 0.05 / -0.17 / 8 - 6 / Green Bay Packers
14. -0.03 / -0.36 / 6 - 8 / Cincinnati Bengals
15. -0.09 / 0.28 / 6 - 8 / Kansas City Chiefs
16. -0.16 / 0.23 / 6 - 8 / Houston Texans
17. -0.45 / 0.28 / 5 - 9 / Oakland Raiders
18. -0.62 / -0.06 / 5 - 9 / New York Giants
19. -0.63 / 0.04 / 6 - 8 / Carolina Panthers
20. -0.63 / -0.09 / 5 - 9 / Dallas Cowboys
21. -0.63 / -0.12 / 5 - 9 / Detroit Lions
22. -0.74 / -0.25 / 3 - 11 / Cleveland Browns
23. -0.75 / 0.08 / 7 - 7 / Seattle Seahawks
24. -0.86 / 0.01 / 4 - 10 / Tennessee Titans
25. -0.87 / -0.09 / 5 - 9 / Washington Redskins
26. -0.89 / 0.30 / 6 - 8 / New Orleans Saints
27. -0.91 / -0.16 / 5 - 9 / Chicago Bears
28. -1.13 / -0.06 / 6 - 8 / St Louis Rams
29. -1.14 / -0.11 / 5 - 9 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. -1.38 / 0.37 / 5 - 9 / Arizona Cardinals
31. -1.56 / 0.73 / 3 - 11 / Miami Dolphins
32. -2.74 / 0.09 / 2 - 12 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field Advantage = 0.28

Week 14 Power Ranking - 2004

The Seattle Seahawks finally beat a team with a record above 0.500. Unfortunately, that team was the Vikings from Minnesota, where I was born and raised. With this victory, the Seahawks take a step in the right direction, which probably makes people a little more comfortable since the Seahawks have been ranked dreadfully low. Their score has improved greatly, however, their actual rank only improves from 28th to 26th. This isn't a great improvement in rank, but it will require a little more than this single victory to change their ranking considerably. As I'm sure many people are aware, the victor of a game is not necessarily the better team. Rather, the team that wins is the better team on that day, or at least had things go their way. Variability and uncertainty is the reality of sports, and we should all be thankful for that. By beating Minnesota, Seattle moves within striking distance of a dramatic improvement in rank if they continue to win. The ranking is based on the entire season, however, and their win doesn't erase the fact that the Carolina Panthers were the best team they'd beaten to this point, in a game which they had home field advantage. They've lost to St. Louis, Dallas, and at home against Arizona. With that said, I don't mean to diminish their accomplishment. Seattle has dropped my team below the Green Bay Packers and are poised to end the season well, but they must beat the Jets or the Falcons.

Cleveland has been surprisingly high all year and suffer from a loss to Buffalo. They remain relatively high, however, due to their remarkably difficult schedule and wins against Baltimore and Cincinnati. Losing the majority of their remaining games, against much less formidable opponents would drop them significantly in future power rankings.

Score / Change from Last Week / W - L / Team

1. 3.84 / 0.00 / 12 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 3.61 / 0.05 / 12 - 1 / New England Patriots
3. 3.37 / -0.15 / 12 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
4. 1.31 / -0.03 / 10 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
5. 1.28 / -0.06 / 9 - 4 / New York Jets
6. 1.21 / -0.10 / 8 - 5 / Baltimore Ravens
7. 1.09 / 0.14 / 10 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
8. 0.59 / 0.19 / 10 - 3 / Atlanta Falcons
9. 0.39 / -0.01 / 7 - 6 / Jacksonville Jaguars
10. 0.33 / -0.23 / 6 - 7 / Cincinnati Bengals
11. 0.26 / 0.16 / 8 - 5 / Denver Broncos
12. 0.23 / 0.25 / 7 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
13. 0.22 / -0.11 / 8 - 5 / Green Bay Packers
14. -0.09 / -0.51 / 7 - 6 / Minnesota Vikings
15. -0.37 / 0.34 / 5 - 8 / Kansas City Chiefs
16. -0.39 / -0.16 / 5 - 8 / Houston Texans
17. -0.49 / -0.41 / 3 - 10 / Cleveland Browns
18. -0.51 / -0.35 / 5 - 8 / Detroit Lions
19. -0.54 / -0.54 / 5 - 8 / Dallas Cowboys
20. -0.56 / -0.33 / 5 - 8 / New York Giants
21. -0.67 / 0.40 / 6 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
22. -0.73 / 0.15 / 4 - 9 / Oakland Raiders
23. -0.75 / -0.36 / 5 - 8 / Chicago Bears
24. -0.78 / -0.27 / 4 - 9 / Washington Redskins
25. -0.83 / 0.51 / 7 - 6 / Seattle Seahawks
26. -0.87 / -0.34 / 4 - 9 / Tennessee Titans
27. -1.03 / 0.17 / 5 - 8 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28. -1.07 / 0.15 / 6 - 7 / St Louis Rams
29. -1.19 / 0.53 / 5 - 8 / New Orleans Saints
30. -1.75 / -0.18 / 4 - 9 / Arizona Cardinals
31. -2.29 / 0.16 / 2 - 11 / Miami Dolphins
32. -2.83 / 0.94 / 2 - 11 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field Advantage = 0.27

Week 13 Power Ranking - 2004

The Falcons make the biggest move this week by losing to the Buccaneers. The Bengals pull one off against the Ravens in Baltimore and take a big leap. You might be wondering why there are some teams who actually experienced an increase in score from last week despite a loss, such as the Packers and Browns. Since the strength estimation dynamically adjusts for schedule difficulty, teams can actually benefit from past victories as the strength measure of teams change. For example, the Browns lost last week to the Patriots. This isn't a huge surprise and they don't suffer too much by losing to an elite team. However, you might wonder why they are ranked so high with only 3 wins. Well, their 3 wins came against Baltimore, Washington, and Cincinnati. While Baltimore suffered a decrease in score this week, Washington and Cincinnati increased significantly. It isn't a big shock that New England beat Cleveland, however, with the rise of Washington and Cincinnati, Cleveland's past victories look more impressive.

The fact that Cleveland benefits from past victories relies on a debatable concept. Some might say that the performance of Washington and Cincinnati does not necessarily have much to do with how well they were playing at the time Cleveland beat them. I would argue that while performance of a team certainly fluctuates, it doesn't vary as much as we might think. I believe our understanding of a team is what changes the most. In week 9, many football experts ranked Seattle fairly high in their power rankings, while I had them extremely low despite a pretty good record at the time. The reason I had didn't think they were a very good team was that they had only beaten very bad teams and lost to some mediocre teams. Now we see they have dropped two consecutive home games agianst Buffalo and Dallas, which aren't exactly power teams. By now people are probably changing their minds about Seattle. I believe if you look closely at most team's "streaks" and "slumps", you'll find a lot of that has to do with the difficulty of their schedule. Cleveland has actually lost 6 games in a row, yet I wouldn't say they are in a slump. They are a mediocre team, not a bad team, that has just finished playing Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Cincinnati, and New England (6 of the top 8 teams). If they lose the next four games, I'll stand corrected.

Score / Change from last week / W - L / Team

1. 3.84 / 0.11 / 11 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 3.56 / 0.08 / 11 - 1 / New England Patriots
3. 3.52 / 0.08 / 11 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
4. 1.34 / 0.08 / 9 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
5. 1.34 / 0.09 / 9 - 3 / New York Jets
6. 1.31 / -0.33 / 7 - 5 / Baltimore Ravens
7. 0.95 / 0.02 / 9 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
8. 0.56 / 0.46 / 6 - 6 / Cincinnati Bengals
9. 0.42 / -0.29 / 7 - 5 / Minnesota Vikings
10. 0.40 / -0.50 / 9 - 3 / Atlanta Falcons
11. 0.40 / -0.03 / 6 - 6 / Jacksonville Jaguars
12. 0.33 / 0.06 / 7 - 5 / Green Bay Packers
13. 0.10 / -0.15 / 7 - 5 / Denver Broncos
14. 0.00 / 0.25 / 5 - 7 / Dallas Cowboys
15. -0.02 / -0.05 / 6 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
16. -0.08 / 0.13 / 3 - 9 / Cleveland Browns
17. -0.16 / 0.11 / 5 - 7 / Detroit Lions
18. -0.23 / -0.08 / 5 - 7 / Houston Texans
19. -0.23 / -0.19 / 5 - 7 / New York Giants
20. -0.39 / 0.43 / 5 - 7 / Chicago Bears
21. -0.51 / 0.43 / 4 - 8 / Washington Redskins
22. -0.53 / 0.00 / 4 - 8 / Tennessee Titans
23. -0.71 / 0.25 / 4 - 8 / Kansas City Chiefs
24. -0.88 / -0.31 / 4 - 8 / Oakland Raiders
25. -1.07 / 0.15 / 5 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
26. -1.20 / 0.36 / 5 - 7 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. -1.22 / -0.10 / 6 - 6 / St Louis Rams
28. -1.34 / -0.19 / 6 - 6 / Seattle Seahawks
29. -1.57 / -0.22 / 4 - 8 / Arizona Cardinals
30. -1.72 / -0.31 / 4 - 8 / New Orleans Saints
31. -2.45 / -0.20 / 2 - 10 / Miami Dolphins
32. -3.77 / -0.17 / 1 - 11 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field Advantage = 0.35