Divisional Playoffs - before
Based on the regular season results, excluding obvious "junk" games involving Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Indianapolis at the end of the season, the probability of one team beating another can be estimated. The following table gives the probabilities of each team winning their next game and the probability of each team winning their conference.
NFC
- 0.97833173 0.941106882 Phi
- 0.81153267 0.047580083 Atl
- 0.18846733 0.004631178 StL
- 0.02166827 0.006681857 Min
AFC
- 0.95166237 0.76512765 Pit
- 0.78751316 0.20066513 NE
- 0.21248684 0.02730017 Ind
- 0.04833763 0.00690705 NYJ
Here are the rankings without the "junk" games. More specifically: Philadelphia vs St. Louis in week 16, Pittsburgh vs Buffalo, Philadelphia vs Cincinnati, Indianapolis vs Denver, and Atlanta vs Seattle in week 17.
- 3.51 / 14 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
- 3.19 / 13 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
- 2.59 / 14 - 2 / New England Patriots
- 1.61 / 12 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
- 1.12 / 12 - 4 / San Diego Chargers
- 0.92 / 9 - 7 / Baltimore Ravens
- 0.86 / 10 - 6 / New York Jets
- 0.50 / 9 - 6 / Buffalo Bills
- 0.47 / 9 - 7 / Jacksonville Jaguars
- 0.43 / 11 - 4 / Atlanta Falcons
- 0.26 / 9 - 6 / Denver Broncos
- 0.24 / 10 - 6 / Green Bay Packers
- 0.10 / 7 - 8 / Cincinnati Bengals
- -0.10 / 7 - 9 / Kansas City Chiefs
- -0.25 / 7 - 9 / Houston Texans
- -0.29 / 8 - 8 / Minnesota Vikings
- -0.53 / 8 - 8 / New Orleans Saints
- -0.55 / 8 - 7 / Seattle Seahawks
- -0.60 / 6 - 10 / New York Giants
- -0.62 / 6 - 10 / Dallas Cowboys
- -0.66 / 7 - 9 / Carolina Panthers
- -0.67 / 4 - 12 / Cleveland Browns
- -0.70 / 7 - 8 / St Louis Rams
- -0.72 / 5 - 11 / Oakland Raiders
- -0.75 / 6 - 10 / Detroit Lions
- -0.82 / 6 - 10 / Washington Redskins
- -0.87 / 5 - 11 / Tennessee Titans
- -1.20 / 6 - 10 / Arizona Cardinals
- -1.21 / 4 - 12 / Miami Dolphins
- -1.22 / 5 - 11 / Chicago Bears
- -1.40 / 5 - 11 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- -2.65 / 2 - 14 / San Francisco 49ers
Home-field Advantage = 0.33
posted by adam @ 6:46 PM
8 comments
8 Comments:
i sure hope that you are right...or rather, go probability!...uh, i meanm, go eagles!
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