Week 9 - 2004

The purpose of this blog, for now, is simply to provide a ranking of NFL teams. The ranking below is completely objective, and accounts for schedule difficulty and home-field advantage. The "score" is estimated from a logistic regression model, and as you can probably guess, the larger the score, the better the team.

At this point, the model is based on the win/loss outcome of the game. That is, there is no distinction between a 41-0 blowout or a 24-21 overtime win. Also, all games are weighted evenly so there is no advantage to being "hot". A teams score estimate will be based on the entire season. The Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh in week 2, before Roethlisberger took over as starter, however their ranking benefits as much as if they beat the Steelers last week. I have not yet decided on the best way to adjust for decisive and recent victories, however, since I would have to use a subjective weighting strategy.

There are a few things that stood out when I first looked at these results. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the Baltimore Ravens are ranked very high for a team with 3 losses. They did, however, hand the Steelers their only loss in week 2 and lost to the Eagles by only 5 points in Philadelphia. Atlanta is only ranked 11th despite their 6-2 record because their first four wins were against very weak teams and they lost at home against the Detroit Lions. Finally, even though Seattle is 5-3, they are ranked 24th. They've had the pleasure of facing a 1-7 team three times (Carolina and San Francisco twice), and they have only played one game against a winning team.

Score / W - L / Team

1. 3.25 / 7 - 1 / Pittsburgh Steelers
2. 3.22 / 7 - 1 / Philadelphia Eagles
3. 2.83 / 7 - 1 / New England Patriots
4. 1.24 / 5 - 3 / Baltimore Ravens
5. 1.00 / 6 - 2 / New York Jets
6. 0.98 / 5 - 3 / Indianapolis Colts
7. 0.94 / 5 - 3 / New York Giants
8. 0.89 / 5 - 3 / Minnesota Vikings
9. 0.88 / 5 - 3 / Jacksonville Jaguars
10. 0.66 / 6 - 3 / San Diego Chargers
11. 0.60 / 6 - 2 / Atlanta Falcons
12. 0.49 / 6 - 3 / Denver Broncos
13. 0.37 / 4 - 4 / Detroit Lions
14. 0.35 / 3 - 5 / Cleveland Browns
15. 0.19 / 4 - 4 / Houston Texans
16. -0.06 / 3 - 5 / Dallas Cowboys
17. -0.19 / 4 - 4 / Green Bay Packers
18. -0.29 / 3 - 5 / Cincinnati Bengals
19. -0.44 / 3 - 5 / Kansas City Chiefs
20. -0.48 / 3 - 5 / Tennessee Titans
21. -0.49 / 3 - 5 / Washington Redskins
22. -0.57 / 3 - 5 / Buffalo Bills
23. -0.62 / 3 - 5 / Chicago Bears
24. -0.78 / 5 - 3 / Seattle Seahawks
25. -1.10 / 3 - 6 / Oakland Raiders
26. -1.11 / 4 - 4 / St Louis Rams
27. -1.24 / 3 - 5 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28. -1.52 / 3 - 5 / Arizona Cardinals
29. -1.52 / 3 - 5 / New Orleans Saints
30. -2.12 / 1 - 7 / Carolina Panthers
31. -2.50 / 1 - 8 / Miami Dolphins
32. -2.84 / 1 - 7 / San Francisco 49ers

Home-field advantage = 0.36